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A hands-on introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS provides an easily accessible introduction to the use of WinBUGS programming techniques in a variety of Bayesian modeling settings. The author provides an accessible treatment of the topic, offering readers a smooth introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling with detailed guidance on the practical implementation of key principles. The book begins with a basic introduction to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software and goes on to cover key topics, including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference Generalized linear models Bayesian hierarchical models Predictive distribution and model checking Bayesian model and variable evaluation Computational notes and screen captures illustrate the use of both WinBUGS as well as R software to apply the discussed techniques. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their understanding of the presented concepts and all data sets and code are available on the book's related Web site. Requiring only a working knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS serves as an excellent book for courses on Bayesian statistics at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners in the fields of statistics, actuarial science, medicine, and the social sciences who use WinBUGS in their everyday work.

Statistical data are not always precise numbers, or vectors, or categories. Real data are frequently what is called fuzzy. Examples where this fuzziness is obvious are quality of life data, environmental, biological, medical, sociological and economics data. Also the results of measurements can be best described by using fuzzy numbers and fuzzy vectors respectively. Statistical analysis methods have to be adapted for the analysis of fuzzy data. In this book, the foundations of the description of fuzzy data are explained, including methods on how to obtain the characterizing function of fuzzy measurement results. Furthermore, statistical methods are then generalized to the analysis of fuzzy data and fuzzy a-priori information. Key Features: Provides basic methods for the mathematical description of fuzzy data, as well as statistical methods that can be used to analyze fuzzy data. Describes methods of increasing importance with applications in areas such as environmental statistics and social science. Complements the theory with exercises and solutions and is illustrated throughout with diagrams and examples. Explores areas such quantitative description of data uncertainty and mathematical description of fuzzy data. This work is aimed at statisticians working with fuzzy logic, engineering statisticians, finance researchers, and environmental statisticians. It is written for readers who are familiar with elementary stochastic models and basic statistical methods.

This book grew out of an online interactive offered through statcourse.com, and it soon became apparent to the author that the course was too limited in terms of time and length in light of the broad backgrounds of the enrolled students. The statisticians who took the course needed to be brought up to speed both on the biological context as well as on the specialized statistical methods needed to handle large arrays. Biologists and physicians, even though fully knowledgeable concerning the procedures used to generate microaarrays, EEGs, or MRIs, needed a full introduction to the resampling methods—the bootstrap, decision trees, and permutation tests, before the specialized methods applicable to large arrays could be introduced. As the intended audience for this book consists both of statisticians and of medical and biological research workers as well as all those research workers who make use of satellite imagery including agronomists and meteorologists, the book provides a step-by-step approach to not only the specialized methods needed to analyze the data from microarrays and images, but also to the resampling methods, step-down multi-comparison procedures, multivariate analysis, as well as data collection and pre-processing. While many alternate techniques for analysis have been introduced in the past decade, the author has selected only those techniques for which software is available along with a list of the available links from which the software may be purchased or downloaded without charge. Topical coverage includes: very large arrays; permutation tests; applying permutation tests; gathering and preparing data for analysis; multiple tests; bootstrap; applying the bootstrap; classification methods; decision trees; and applying decision trees.

Bayesian methods are increasingly being used in the social sciences, as the problems encountered lend themselves so naturally to the subjective qualities of Bayesian methodology. This book provides an accessible introduction to Bayesian methods, tailored specifically for social science students. It contains lots of real examples from political science, psychology, sociology, and economics, exercises in all chapters, and detailed descriptions of all the key concepts, without assuming any background in statistics beyond a first course. It features examples of how to implement the methods using WinBUGS – the most-widely used Bayesian analysis software in the world – and R – an open-source statistical software. The book is supported by a Website featuring WinBUGS and R code, and data sets.

This book provides a broad, mature, and systematic introduction to current financial econometric models and their applications to modeling and prediction of financial time series data. It utilizes real-world examples and real financial data throughout the book to apply the models and methods described. The author begins with basic characteristics of financial time series data before covering three main topics: Analysis and application of univariate financial time series The return series of multiple assets Bayesian inference in finance methods Key features of the new edition include additional coverage of modern day topics such as arbitrage, pair trading, realized volatility, and credit risk modeling; a smooth transition from S-Plus to R; and expanded empirical financial data sets. The overall objective of the book is to provide some knowledge of financial time series, introduce some statistical tools useful for analyzing these series and gain experience in financial applications of various econometric methods.

Statistical science’s first coordinated manual of methods for analyzing ordered categorical data, now fully revised and updated, continues to present applications and case studies in fields as diverse as sociology, public health, ecology, marketing, and pharmacy. Analysis of Ordinal Categorical Data, Second Edition provides an introduction to basic descriptive and inferential methods for categorical data, giving thorough coverage of new developments and recent methods. Special emphasis is placed on interpretation and application of methods including an integrated comparison of the available strategies for analyzing ordinal data. Practitioners of statistics in government, industry (particularly pharmaceutical), and academia will want this new edition.

A systematic and integrated approach to Cantor Sets and their applications to various branches of mathematics The Elements of Cantor Sets: With Applications features a thorough introduction to Cantor Sets and applies these sets as a bridge between real analysis, probability, topology, and algebra. The author fills a gap in the current literature by providing an introductory and integrated perspective, thereby preparing readers for further study and building a deeper understanding of analysis, topology, set theory, number theory, and algebra. The Elements of Cantor Sets provides coverage of: Basic definitions and background theorems as well as comprehensive mathematical details A biography of Georg Ferdinand Ludwig Philipp Cantor, one of the most significant mathematicians of the last century Chapter coverage of fractals and self-similar sets, sums of Cantor Sets, the role of Cantor Sets in creating pathological functions, p-adic numbers, and several generalizations of Cantor Sets A wide spectrum of topics from measure theory to the Monty Hall Problem An ideal text for courses in real analysis, topology, algebra, and set theory for undergraduate and graduate-level courses within mathematics, computer science, engineering, and physics departments, The Elements of Cantor Sets is also appropriate as a useful reference for researchers and secondary mathematics education majors.

This book explores the many provocative questions concerning the fundamentals of data analysis. It is based on the time-tested experience of one of the gurus of the subject matter. Why should one study data analysis? How should it be taught? What techniques work best, and for whom? How valid are the results? How much data should be tested? Which machine languages should be used, if used at all? Emphasis on apprenticeship (through hands-on case studies) and anecdotes (through real-life applications) are the tools that Peter J. Huber uses in this volume. Concern with specific statistical techniques is not of immediate value; rather, questions of strategy – when to use which technique – are employed. Central to the discussion is an understanding of the significance of massive (or robust) data sets, the implementation of languages, and the use of models. Each is sprinkled with an ample number of examples and case studies. Personal practices, various pitfalls, and existing controversies are presented when applicable. The book serves as an excellent philosophical and historical companion to any present-day text in data analysis, robust statistics, data mining, statistical learning, or computational statistics.

A new and unique way of understanding the translation of concepts and natural language into mathematical expressions Transforming a body of text into corresponding mathematical expressions and models is traditionally viewed and taught as a mathematical problem; it is also a task that most find difficult. The Language of Mathematics: Utilizing Math in Practice reveals a new way to view this process—not as a mathematical problem, but as a translation, or language, problem. By presenting the language of mathematics explicitly and systematically, this book helps readers to learn mathematics¿and improve their ability to apply mathematics more efficiently and effectively to practical problems in their own work. Using parts of speech to identify variables and functions in a mathematical model is a new approach, as is the insight that examining aspects of grammar is highly useful when formulating a corresponding mathematical model. This book identifies the basic elements of the language of mathematics, such as values, variables, and functions, while presenting the grammatical rules for combining them into expressions and other structures. The author describes and defines different notational forms for expressions, and also identifies the relationships between parts of speech and other grammatical elements in English and components of expressions in the language of mathematics. Extensive examples are used throughout that cover a wide range of real-world problems and feature diagrams and tables to facilitate understanding. The Language of Mathematics is a thought-provoking book of interest for readers who would like to learn more about the linguistic nature and aspects of mathematical notation. The book also serves as a valuable supplement for engineers, technicians, managers, and consultants who would like to improve their ability to apply mathematics effectively, systematically, and efficiently to practical problems.

A road map for implementing quantitative financial models Financial Derivative and Energy Market Valuation brings the application of financial models to a higher level by helping readers capture the true behavior of energy markets and related financial derivatives. The book provides readers with a range of statistical and quantitative techniques and demonstrates how to implement the presented concepts and methods in Matlab®. Featuring an unparalleled level of detail, this unique work provides the underlying theory and various advanced topics without requiring a prior high-level understanding of mathematics or finance. In addition to a self-contained treatment of applied topics such as modern Fourier-based analysis and affine transforms, Financial Derivative and Energy Market Valuation also: • Provides the derivation, numerical implementation, and documentation of the corresponding Matlab for each topic • Extends seminal works developed over the last four decades to derive and utilize present-day financial models • Shows how to use applied methods such as fast Fourier transforms to generate statistical distributions for option pricing • Includes all Matlab code for readers wishing to replicate the figures found throughout the book Thorough, practical, and easy to use, Financial Derivative and Energy Market Valuation is a first-rate guide for readers who want to learn how to use advanced numerical methods to implement and apply state-of-the-art financial models. The book is also ideal for graduate-level courses in quantitative finance, mathematical finance, and financial engineering.

Markov chains are a fundamental class of stochastic processes. They are widely used to solve problems in a large number of domains such as operational research, computer science, communication networks and manufacturing systems. The success of Markov chains is mainly due to their simplicity of use, the large number of available theoretical results and the quality of algorithms developed for the numerical evaluation of many metrics of interest. The author presents the theory of both discrete-time and continuous-time homogeneous Markov chains. He carefully examines the explosion phenomenon, the Kolmogorov equations, the convergence to equilibrium and the passage time distributions to a state and to a subset of states. These results are applied to birth-and-death processes. He then proposes a detailed study of the uniformization technique by means of Banach algebra. This technique is used for the transient analysis of several queuing systems. Contents 1. Discrete-Time Markov Chains 2. Continuous-Time Markov Chains 3. Birth-and-Death Processes 4. Uniformization 5. Queues About the Authors Bruno Sericola is a Senior Research Scientist at Inria Rennes – Bretagne Atlantique in France. His main research activity is in performance evaluation of computer and communication systems, dependability analysis of fault-tolerant systems and stochastic models.

Discover how mathematics and science have propelled history From Ancient Greece to the Enlightenment and then on to modern times, Shifting the Earth: The Mathematical Quest to Understand the Motion of the Universe takes readers on a journey motivated by the desire to understand the universe and the motion of the heavens. The author presents a thought-provoking depiction of the sociopolitical environment in which some of the most prominent scientists in history lived and then provides a mathematical account of their contributions. From Eudoxus to Einstein, this fascinating book describes how, beginning in ancient times, pioneers in the sciences and mathematics have dramatically changed our vision of who we are as well as our place in the universe. Readers will discover how Ptolemy's geocentric model evolved into Kepler's heliocentric model, with Copernicus as the critical intermediary. The author explains how one scientific breakthrough set the stage for the next one, and he also places the scientists and their discoveries within the context of history, including: Archimedes, Apollonius, and the Punic Wars Ptolemy and the rise of Christianity Copernicus and the Renaissance Kepler and the Counter-Reformation Newton and the Enlightenment Einstein and the detonation of the atom bomb Each chapter presents the work of a single scientist or mathematician, building on the previous chapters to demonstrate the evolutionary process of discovery. Chapters begin with a narrative section and conclude with a mathematical presentation of one of the scientist's original works. Most of these mathematical presentations, including the section on Einstein's special relativity, are accessible using only basic mathematics; however, readers can skip the mathematical sections and still follow the evolution of science and mathematics. Shifting the Earth is an excellent book for anyone interested in the history of mathematics and how the quest to understand the motion of the heavens has influenced the broader history of humankind.